The Unprofessional Bettor Part 1

I’ve become quite attached to Graham Houston’s ‘weekend betting angles’ pieces on Boxing Social, so I thought I’d give one a whirl. Finding the value in betting particularly on boxing has always intrigued me because the choice tends to be limited, as well as the annoying cash out options which I’ve never understood.

This weekend, we see a bunch of fights which don’t really give us much value from betting on an outright win, unless you’re looking at Leigh Wood vs Reece Mould. The British featherweight title fight is seen by the bookies as a genuine 50/50 with a 2/5 on Leigh Wood, whilst Reece Mould comes in as a slight underdog at 2/1. It’s within reason to think that Wood will come away with the victory here having more ‘big fight experience’ than the Yorkshireman, and at 5/4 to win on points it’s worth punting a few quid as the chosen method and winner. However there’s also the new trainer element to be considered, as this will mark Wood’s first fight under the guidance of Ben Davison. I’m completely unsure on how those two will gel but as I haven’t heard any bad news, we can expect the opposite and Wood to potentially catch the stoppage at 2/1.

The rest of the action on that Warrington card is pretty dire, to be honest. I’m looking forward to seeing prospect Dalton Smith and Hopey Price’s progress since their last outing, but there’s not much to find here as a bettor.

I was hoping there would be more value in Zelfa Barrett vs Kiko Martinez but as I fell prey to the wide odds on Eric Donovan against Barrett in July last year, I won’t be doing that again any time soon. Martinez is 13/2 to win outright whilst ‘Brown Flash’ sits as a 1/12 favourite. I would be tempted to place a bet on Barrett KO, and at 8/11 it’s not a terrible price for what I can see as the only outcome. Barrett proved in his last outing against Eric Donovan that his power will always keep him in a fight and can find the landing shot at any point. He’s come on leaps and bounds since his sole defeat to Ronnie Clark in 2018, and I can only see him continuing to impress. You can widen the price on Barrett by choosing the early or later stages of the fight, I’d side with the latter as we know Kiko Martinez has been around for a while and should give the Mancunian a few decent rounds. Barrett is priced at 2/1 for rounds 6-10.

I’m really not buying that Mauricio Lara is going to upset the bookies this weekend. His team seem to be in a confident mood and people are saying he can punch, if you like the sound of that then Lara to win outright is 10/1, which would be one of boxing’s biggest upsets in 2021. Inactivity for Warrington may play a part in that, although I expect him to be completely focused to do a job on Lara here, whether that be a KO in rounds 1-5 at 7/4 or to completely outclass the Mexican over the distance and win on points (2/1). Warrington’s KO percentage may seem unconvincing of a stoppage here but Frampton calling him the hardest puncher he’s been in with, begs me to differ. Warrington always brings action, but I expect ring rust to creep in against someone who fought four times last year. It might take a few rounds for the former World champion to wake up properly, but ultimately you’re looking at a Warrington win, probably on points.

Diaz-Rakhimov is a fantastic fight which marks the first defence of the IBF World title held by Jo Jo Diaz. Taking place in the early hours of Sunday morning, Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov boasts an undefeated record of 15-0 (12 KOs) in his first World title shot, and at 13/8 to win outright this is a fight which could go either way. Annoyingly the bet I like is Diaz to win on points but the bookies also like this at 4/6. If you fancy either man to get the KO, it’s definitely worth a punt at 5/1. If you like Rakhimov’s chances of edging out the champion on the cards, it’s 11/4 which is a great price.

Diaz really impressed me with his win over Tevin Farmer to win the IBF strap which is why I prefer Diaz to come away with the win here. Rakhimov hasn’t fought in an even longer time period dating back to September 2019, which I don’t think will play too much of a part here but will certainly make the last few rounds entertaining. I personally see a points victory written all over this one, a real shame that the bookies see the same at 2/9. A draw is volatile in boxing as no one ever really expects that result, but priced at 16/1 here I wouldn’t write off the potential of it happening.

All prices are from Sky Bet.

Published by Chandler Waller

24-year-old boxing writer and blogger. Putting my thoughts out there daily. Check out fight post.co.uk for my interviews.

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